miércoles, 14 de julio de 2010

Antes Del Pulpo Paul, Hubo Nouriel Roubini

A estas alturas todo mundo sabe quien es Nouriel Roubini, el oráculo que, incluso antes que el pulpo Paul, pronosticó con precisión la implosión de la economía global y las causas que la provocaron. Creo que los mercados han ignorado, por una razón sencilla, que el costo del dinero es cero, las advertencias continuas de Roubini respecto de los riesgos de corto plazo de la economía.

La siguiente es una nota a partir de una entrevista de Roubini con Bloomber, en donde delinea claramente los riesgos. Sobra decir que él está de acuerdo con mi posición (Mario Bojorquez dixit). Vale mucho la pena leerlo.

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama needs to be upfront with the nation about what must be done to increase the pace of U.S. economic growth, according to Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist credited with predicting the global financial crisis.

“We have to recognize that Americans are adults,” Roubini said during a radio interview with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance. “Then we have to speak to them straightforward about the risks and challenges that we have, rather than kicking the can down the road.”

The government must maintain fiscal stimulus in the near term before gradually reducing spending and raising revenue to rebound from the longest U.S. economic slump since the Great Depression, said Roubini, 52. A value-added sales tax is probably “the best idea on the table” to contain the federal deficit once the recovery gains momentum, according to Roubini.

Making a commitment to a fiscal plan will prevent markets from “getting spooked,” said Roubini, who in August 2006 predicted a “painful” U.S. recession that came to fruition in December 2007.

“Markets are not going to punish countries for doing fiscal stimulus in the short run when there is light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

The Obama administration has increased U.S. marketable debt to a record $7.96 trillion as it tries to sustain the economic expansion.

Labor Market

Private employers added fewer workers to payrolls in June than forecast, the Labor Department reported on July 2, reinforcing concern the recovery will weaken as Americans curtail spending. Including government, payrolls fell for the first time this year because of a drop in census workers.

Gross domestic product grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate in the first quarter, less than the Commerce Department previously calculated, reflecting a smaller gain in consumer spending and a bigger trade deficit.

In the short run, Roubini said, the economy needs to maintain federal fiscal stimulus to rescue indebted households and state and local governments from bankruptcy. Failure to provide debt relief will reduce consumption and force essential cuts on spending in areas such as education and public safety, according to Roubini.

When the domestic economy gains footing from federal spending, Roubini said, the government will have to reverse course, reducing the debt through fiscal austerity for the next three to seven years.

“At the same time, it’s not enough to do it on the spending side,” said Roubini, favoring a value-added sales tax. “The deficit cap is so large in the U.S. that eventually we need to have raises in revenues, and we have to do that in non- distortionary ways.”

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