Señoras y Señores: esto es justo lo que Keynes llamó la trampa de liquidez. Estamos en ella, en esta singularidad, como en un hoyo negro, los bancos se chupan toda la liquidez que se inyecta a la economía, y no prestan. Esto es lo que la teoría dice que debe de pasar cuando la tasa nominal de interés es cero: ¿por qué es tan difícil aceptar para los mercados y los economistas, especialmente los nuestros, la complicadísima situación en la que nos encontramos?
Que nadie, empezando por Ernesto Cordero, se emocione con el rebote técnico del 2010. Lo que sigue estará bien complicado.
Esta es una nota que apareció esta tarde del 23 de Febrero en www.wsj.com: yo que ustedes me preocuparía mucho.
U.S. banks posted last year their sharpest decline in lending since 1942, suggesting that the industry's continued slide is making it harder for the economy to recover.
While top-tier banks are recovering at a faster clip, the rest of the industry is still suffering, according to a quarterly report from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Banks fighting for survival, especially those plagued by losses on commercial real estate, are less willing to extend loans, siphoning credit from businesses and consumers.
Besides registering their biggest full-year decline in total loans outstanding in 67 years, U.S. banks set a number of grim milestones. According to the FDIC, the number of U.S. banks at risk of failing hit a 16-year high at 702. More than 5% of all loans were at least three months past due, the highest level recorded in the 26 years the data have been collected. And the problems are expected to last through 2010.
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said banks are "bumping along the bottom of the credit cycle" and that the number of bank failures in 2010 will likely eclipse the 140 recorded last year.
The struggling U.S. banking industry remains a problem for policy makers eager for banks to lend again. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill and administration officials have pushed banks to lend, particularly in light of the billions in taxpayer aid injected into the financial industry over the past two years. Banking groups and their members counter that they're under pressure from regulators to be more prudent and that demand from struggling consumers and businesses isn't there.