domingo, 27 de septiembre de 2009

El dólar es el nuevo peso, dicen traders de divisas

Por décadas, el yen ha estado tan barato, con tasas de interés mínimas, que los grandes bancos y especuladores han acuñado un término ya de uso común: el "carry trade". Esto significa básicamente endeudarse en baratísimos yenes, e invertir en activos de otras monedas beneficiándose del diferencial.

Pues bien, el dólar está tan barato y las tasas de EEUU tan bajas, que muchos están mudando el carry-trade de Japón a Wall Street, lo que ha provocado que muchos digan que el dólar es el nuevo yen.

Esta nota en CNBC sin embargo, esta retesimpática, y dice que no, que el dólar no es el nuevo yen, sino el nuevo peso, de tan poca credibilidad que tendrá en los mercados esta política de expansión fiscal inyectada para salvar a la economía de una gran depresión.

La nota es muy buena, así que la transcribo íntegra:

The falling US dollar is expected to get even weaker, moving to the center of a carry trade and encouraging global investors to borrow more dollars to fund higher-yielding currencies and assets. Is this necessarily a bad thing and does this mean the dollar will become the new yen? Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, shared his thoughts.

“I don’t know when [the dollar] is going to strengthen,” Schiff told CNBC. “The dollar isn’t the new yen, it’s unfortunately the new peso.”

Schiff said the yen carry trade is over and the new Japanese government is even talking about the benefits of a stronger yen for the domestic economy.

“The yen has gone a lot higher but the dollar is going to go a lot lower, which makes it ideal,” said Schiff. “Not only can you borrow dollars for very cheap and earn to carry by investing in higher yielding assets, but the dollar is going to fall sharply. So anyone who puts on the carry trade is going to make a ton of money.”

Schiff said the Federal Reserve will soon run into the dilemma of either having to supply the carry traders with an endless amount of cheap dollars or put a halt to the carry trade and aggressively raise interest rates, which will “bring on a much more severe recession than anything we’ve experienced so far.”

Meanwhile, Schiff said he owns the Australian and Canadian dollars as well as the Japanese yen.

“I own a lot of Japanese yen—I think it’s breaking out and the chart looks fantastic,” he said.

“I wouldn’t be looking at any pullbacks from these currencies. There’s a much better chance that the dollar drops through a trap door…I’ve been shorting the dollar for years. I do it because I own foreign currencies, precious metals, and foreign stocks.”

Schiff added that we’re still early in this bull market on gold.

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